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Real Estate is key to the success of the CHINESE ECONOMY as it contributes around 30% of GDP. The results for October reveal a FALL in SALES, PRICES & NEW BUILD STARTS. In addition to this consumer confidence and demand for property are at an all time low and UNEMPLOYMENT is now rising, particularly for University Graduates. In this video I provide full details along with my summary as to what I think will happen to both the Chinese Property Market and the Chinese Economy.
For specific details please check out the CHAPTER list below.
Thanks for watching and please LIKE and SUBSCRIBE.
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
2:26 OCTOBER RESULTS
4:56 PROPERTY MARKET
10:31 DEMAND
12:07 UNEMPLOYMENT
14:38 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
#china
#Belt&Road
#globalrecession
#globalfinancialcrisis
#russia
#Evergrande
#China
#Recession
#Zhenro
#Bonds
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It seems that we've been told that China is about to crash and burn, many times. It will be interesting to to see where China is in five years time, how advanced the BRI is, and how many nations (particularly from OPEC +) have joined BRICS, and where that leaves the dollar?
Its always been a scam… and a scam is a scam is a scam… its probably the biggest ponzi scheme in world history… it makes the SBF crypto scam look small…. the whole world has been living off the greatest period in history of scams !!!!
Oh please, no need to traffic in Conspiracy Theories. We all know that 2 weeks of lockdowns will "Flatten the Curve". (at least we knew that 2 and a half years ago)
So, basically, China is living the same situation the South of Europe was living in 2007. Everybody knows what happen in 2008, and how that changed things in the long term, up to today, in particular in the political scenery. Then, of course, in China de political scenery is quite different, so it will be interesting to see how things evolve there.
So the so called "next Superpower" shoots itself in both feet and knees? Fine, People will flee to the rural areas or to other countries if they can. Nice of the CCP to provide its own end in the coming years.
Watch channels on YT devoted to Chinese content and you'll get a real eye-opener @Joe Bloggs. Primarily I was watching China Insights, but I've branched out to other informational channels as well.
You'e highlighted some of what's being going on, but it's the tip of the iceberg. It's my understanding that developers would take the money for one build, and instead of using it to complete that build, would move on and start another. However i there were any problems, if you leave a build sitting for a couple of weeks, rebar can start rusting, and other unwanted things begin happening, but more importantly, your immigrant work force will move on to work on a different build, making it almost impossible to get them back. In other words, once a building has a delay in getting finished, it may then not ever get finished. Something else that others have mentioned, is the crap quality of many of these builds. Corruption has been so bad that in order for builders to make any money, they have had to work at record speeds and also cut corners anywhere they can, like using sub-standard materials, such as rebar that isn't thick enough, that you can bend with your hands, that you can snap in half. Rocks that can be dug out of outside walls, etc. Watch these channels and you will see sudden holes in roads that motorists then drive into, glass bottles hidden in the cement in decorative outside walls, people ripping all molding off around doors in one go in apartment buildings, you'll see whole sheets of siding flying off in the wind, floors suddenly collapsing, and on and on and on. And it's not just residential apartments, it's dams, overpasses, bridges, ferris wheels, you name it, everything is built substandard now. To say it's shocking to see is an understatement.
Xi has been offered Western mrna vaccinations, and he has refused, each time. Why might that be? Over and over again he has ordered major cities of millions of people into lock-down due to Covid. It was hard enough for many businesses to survive one lock-down, some made it to two, but lock-downs didn't stop there. Thousands upon thousands of businesses have to have gone under during these years. So why doesn't Xi care if his economy sinks like a rock? And why has he instituted the health code? Again, watch these Chinese content channels and you'll hear about the rise in numbers of canteens being built, and how farmers will have to give their yields directly to the government. Of course, if there's only one employee in a canteen (with the rest being volunteers), and if they're getting their food stuffs directly from the farmers, any remaining restaurants will go under, because there's no way they'll be able to compete, price wise. Watch these channels and you'll hear talk of Xi going back to Mao's Planned Economy, of the possibility that their current physical currency will be abandoned soon in favour of an online currency. Imagine the control Xi can have then? China has already moved to all land being owned by the state. We're seeing Chinese aggression everywhere, we've seen the islands that they made with cement, and how they have armed them to the teeth. You don't use aggression the way China has been, you don't arm yourself the way China has been unless you have some big plans. Also, in a recent video it was talked about how there is unexplained use of electricity in a certain city (the suggestion being that it is involved with manufacturing tools or other supplies for war. And of course there's the fact that russia has been sending planes over to china, under the radar, loading them up, and then bringing the planes back to Russia. What are they bringing back? No one is sure yet, but I bet we'll know soon.
Why would Xi want to make his people go through all of this, to lose their money to the real estate schemes and unfinished houses, to banks that have gone under, to the constant Covid lockdowns, etc, why is Xi okay with this? Well, if he wants to change to that planned economy, he's going to have to beat his populace down so they have no fight left in them, so they'll switch over without a peep. And why would Xi want to move to a planned economy? The US has recently banned the sale of advanced microchips to China, Germany stopped the sale of a microchip plant to China, Canada has ordered Chinese firms to sell stocks in any Canadian mining companies. How can Xi get advanced chips if no one will sell them to him? Well, who makes advanced microchips? Taiwan does. Taiwan, who Xi has been threatening to take over for some time now. It won't be easy, so he certainly needs his people on board. He'll need to retrofit factories, and if people don't have regular jobs, they can be recruited to work in these factories to produce arms for the war.
I'm sure all of this is still just a drop in the bucket.
I've stated facts here, based on what I've seen and heard, and knitted everything together with my own ideas, and ideas I've heard on Chinese information-based channels. We'll see what happens, but I think China will make a move very soon. They may want to do it why the US is still embroiled in Russia's war.
My favourite part of your posts, is the delivery of a dooms day message followed by your bright smile hoping that everyone has enjoyed your video…. Makes me chuckle every time! 🤣🤣 But I really enjoy the great quality content you produce with the arid dry humour behind it. Keep up the good work 👍👍
Nothing quite like being sponsored by a Chinese-made product for a video about the failing Chinese market…
All roads lead to CBDC.
I've heard from another video that the CCP is now working to take complete control of the property development sector. Such that the banks may no longer refuse or impede the borrowing of money by property developers which will be fully backed by the state.
I'm no expert, but this looks to me like another recipe for disaster. It will likely lead to the Yuan being devalued into oblivion as the currency becomes just another tool of the CCP to do with as they wish. No longer an object of value that it once was.
My guess is that the ordinary citizen will be stripped of their ability to build wealth and better their lives through it. It will be the end of capitalism in China and the return of Mao's Great Leap Backwards which Xi Jingping seems very eager to reimplement.
China made and sold 26M cars in 2021 v. US 9M and EU a similar number. China car industry 2022 ytd is up 17%. China admin is argueably highly competent and tend to proactively prick their own bubbles so stop worrying about China. If you like collapse stories you should talk about a sick Europe or the even more pathetic the Sick Man of Europe – the UK.
So, people is no longer willing to pay obscene amounts of money for tofu buildings now that everyone is aware of the scam that is the chinese real state market, delightful.
eyes those numbers
…
They always can keep pumping more money into the system…
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If you check out "The China Show"'s last video, it looks like there's an uprising across China!
Well you just explained the nuts and bolts of a giant ponzi scheme!
Th demand problem for property is compounded by a declining population trend in the areas of greatest economic activity. This is only going to get worse. Chinese authorities must focus on saving the banks and stimulating demand by increasing pensions, creating incentives for small businesses to expand and abandoning lockdowns. It's a mess whichever way you turn..
Nothing is going wrong, it's all been done to prove capitalism is no good and communism is the best,
China is not important. Manufacturing ? Vietnam, Philippines and India can absolutely replace China overnight. China is not important. They just use a lot of communism to force people into manufacturing BELOW market value which is a reason to boycott China.
All those people who put money in these "escrow" accounts, could be defaulting on their loans because they can`t get to work because they are in Forcible lock downs, are the builders then no longer liable? Seems to be CCP could be "lie" able.
Cool lamp by the way.Sort of a 21st century disco ball but not for partying.
China is rotting from the inside out.
Your tax does not support other countries' unemployment. Better consider yourself and your country first before others. Do not spread fake news.
Deflation kills. Look out when demand pulls back, confidence goes in the crapper and is VERY hard to turn around. China's RE is WAY out of line with income. Times income: SF/NY 9, London/Toyko 14, Paris 20, Guangzhou/Shangi 32, Beijing/Shenzen 43 and Hong Kong 46
How did it get so high? RE was viewed as the place to get rich, buy and hold. It is NOT about income but about APPRECIATION. Things can go only so high and then it based on confidence of future increases. BUBBLE time. When deflation sets in, turning it around is a real challenge. Horse Whisper.
Joe – Did you see that Russia has sold some oil at $52/ba – which is well below any proposed price cap.
China Fact Chasers is my favourite channel for all things Chinese!
Am I a dinosaur? When did we move from buildings to builds?
Please do a video on foreign debt? Some of foreign debt involved retirement funds, I suspect that they will be holding the bag.