
The outlook for the global economy looks very bleak, with weak growth, high inflation and an end to the era of free money. But how bad will growth get and when will inflation start to fall? And beyond the most likely path, what accidents could make things worse? In this video, I examine the central case forecast for the global economy as well as the possible tail risks for 2023.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:31 IMF Forecasts
05:48 Fed Tail Risks
11:30 ECB Tail Risks
15:39 Bank of England Tail Risks
17:19 Conclusion
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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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What are the errors for their 2021 or earlier projects (including revisions) vs the final real data?
Otherwise, it is not useful.
Kang
😮
I used to think everybody went broke during the Great Depression and other major crashes but they didn’t… Some made millions, I also thought everybody went out of business during these times but they didn’t, some went into business, there's always depression/recession for some people and there's always a good time for others, it's all about perspective.
Great presentation. Covered huge amounts in a short space of time. Thank you.
This guy knows what he’s talking about he makes it interesting. Very professional l hope the government are watching and learning from theses videos keep them coming💯 👏🏾👍🏾👊🏽
IMF was wrong on all its Brazil’s forecast this year (2022)! How can we thrust them for a world forecast! Economists are very good in predicting the past.
Out look for England is that of the island itself, a dam dreary sad little island.
Oh jolly ol' England… jolly roger… hit the skids and roll'em over.
Free money will soon start again, US economy can’t function without it. Also, inflation will run negative within a year, the Fed’ has already done too much.
Thank you Ramin for not implementing clickbait tactics!
Last EZB conference they mentioned potential nonbank risk somewhere in a remote corner 😂 thx for this awesome vid!
Just buy global equity on a dca and ignore the news
While the mainstream financial media understandably retains US centric saturation, this was great breath of freshair zooming out and looking far & wide.. Great content as always.
I am so excited for the future 🙂
Again, another great video. I have been watching your videos for the last 4 years and always find them very informative and beneficial. Thank you 🙂
Thanks for all the useful information. Hopefully we wont be forced in CBDC too soon.
With respect, the huge recent impact on the economy was not "Covid", but "the Covid measures". Check out Sweden, for example, which had far fewer measures and is doing better than UK etc (as well as a substantially lower death rate).
"Accidents", is that a euphemism for "sabotages" by those charge under control of the WEForum?
Thank you, Ramin!
The market is NOT the economy and rarely in lockstep! Great opportunities coming next year
I have to pick on something that's said repeatedly here and elsewhere about "sky high oil prices" and "high energy costs are a given" I have been short wti crude oil for about 6 months now and doing fine, the oil price has dropped significantly from 120 dollars to 80 and is now pretty close to the 10 year average , big developments this weekend in Ukraine may play a major role also,
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Once again a calm and sensible analysis. Refreshing and informative 👌 🙏
During the trend period of deglobalization, Italy's departure from the EU would be characteristic of the trend. EU destruction is almost a guarantee within deglobalization.
Really appreciate your extensive research, analysis and time you put into this channel. It's been a great resource during these strange economic times.
I really would not invest in small companies they are cheap for a reason, they do well in a boom not a down turn. Steer clear, go for established firms with reserves.
Would it be possible to release this on Apple Podcast as audio only ? Like other chart-based podcasts they have YT and podcast release too. Thanks for all the amazing work and educating new investors.
I mean, I like you as a person, and I think you are highly intelligent and have great intentions, but you are just so consistently wrong, and you don't see it.
You've made bad calls about the economy, inflation in particular, and many sectors and (almost) specific types of stock. Natural gas, certain ETFs.
The strategies are the same kind that CNBC and mainstream business media scam their audiences with.
This whole "buy stocks and hold as they go down, hold hold hold hold, even when they're down 30%, 40%, 50%, 60% until they recover…" – – This is horrible management. Some stocks may not recover for 20 years now. Or more. That isn't investing. That's straight dead loss.
The new implementation is trend alignment with stocks and stop losses/risk management.
You're advising what ARK Investments does. And look at their hideously awful returns.
This old school buy and hold forever tactic is lunacy. Half the people will be in nursing homes before they can hope to see a sign of recovery. You can't wait 10, 20, 30 years to hope to see your money come back.
You need to wake up. This method is garbage on fire.
Respect to you, but not your methods. Sorry.
A good indication of what inflation will be can be got from looking at the increase in the m2 money supply.
The m2 money supply is the amount of money in an economy that can easily be converted into cash, e.g. currency notes, bank deposits, savings accounts etc.
Since the start of the covid19 pandemic the m2 money supply has increased by 28%.
Is see no reason why total inflation since the start of the covid19 pandemic shouldn't be 28% too.
Greedy Boomers
Only got this channel and Damien invests . Only two I believe .
. I have unsubscribed all my other you tube money channels because they have no shame over crypto and their ‘contrite’ apologies and are spitting in their subscribers face
So the recent bump in the US market appears to be due to a downturn in inflation. Coupling that with a "possible" break in the Ukraine War, do you think that the recent bump in the US markets will hold, or will recessionary pressures knock it back down?
Will house prices fall next year?
Thanks for the great video! Very helpful.
love your content! getting a bit of fomo over the last few days. you think its a dead cat bounce as they call it?
As this clearly comprehensive summary of the world.s financial woes drew to a close I was eagerly awaiting the screamingly obvious conclusion outlining just how we acolytes should behave in response. Unfortunately I think the author treats his viewers. as grownups (which I'm sure you mostly are) rather than financial adolescents which I surely am. .Perhaps, if you carefully decipher the runes of his discourse all the relevant clues maybe discovered. Meanwhile I just sit tight and hope for the best.
One of the best YouTube channels for financial matters – the facts without the hype and carefully considered opinion, presented as such (not as fact).
I used to watch during the post-Covid rally, thinking Ramin was a bit too staid. In hindesight, his approach was better than 99% of YouTube gurus.
Thanks for the breakdown of the global economics outlook. I still believe in barbell approach in equity investing. Hide out in dividend stocks for the storm, picked up some quality pharma stocks in Europe.
Fantastic content! Thank you Ramin
Thank you.
Although it sounds all doom and gloom it’s really just a sign saying keep buying because if you’re a long term investor this is setting the ground for future gains as markets recover. I wonder what the markets will be like in 10 years time.
"Remember, it will get better." Yeah, just ask any Japanese 🤣
The rally last week didn't look very bleak.
Wonderfully rich and apt content for the current climate
Great video as always, thank you!
Excellent video as are all of Pension Craft's👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻