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As supply chain constraints, production, and chip manufacturing begin to improve…used car prices are beginning to drop, down 6.4% since the record high in January. This also marks the FOURTH consecutive month that auto prices have fallen…and, the FIRST month that sales declined 17%.
Even though this is certainly GOOD NEWS if you want to buy a car…it’s a NIGHTMARE for banks who have LENT MONEY on those cars, at a value that’s rapidly beginning to fall.
Right now, “investors are willing to bet that consumers will keep paying their loans in the near term” – because, after all, a car is an essential purchase that allows them to go to and from work, or be used as a way to make money…although, that might not necessarily continue.
A survey from Fannie Mae found that: “16% of consumers said they expected to lose their job in the next 12 months.” – and, THAT is generally the time where finances get tight, and people cut back on the items that might be costing them too much money…or, in this case, certain Auto Loans.
The WallStreetJournal even found that “more subprime borrowers have start missing payments” as rising prices force households to choose between paying for essentials and paying their monthly loans. NOW, the government is warning of a surge in CAR REPOS, and that “the problems could get much worse unless we stay ahead of it.”
The reality is – lenders have given potentially unaffordable loans to buyers, without verifying their finances, on cars with overinflated values that can’t be sustained without a chip shortage…and, it’s only a matter of time until – EVENTUALLY – things have to come back down and return to normal….after all, used cars can’t sell for more than NEW, FOREVER.
ON THE BRIGHT SIDE….logistically, don’t expect this to be ANYWHERE NEAR the size of the housing market collapse…because, loan sizes are SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER, and it’s MUCH easier to repo and auction a car than it is to foreclose on a home.
In addition to that, most auto loans have a fixed interest rate…so, even though a buyer may owe WAY MORE than what the car is worth…as long as they can continue making that monthly payment…the solution is to simply hold on to the car longer than you expected, and keep driving it until – eventually – you break even.
The best strategy, in this case…is to simply recognize that 40% year-over-year price appreciation is by no means normal, or to be expected…and, if you find yourself with a loan that MIGHT not be affordable….NOW would be a good time to either lower your interest rate, or drive something in a more affordable price point to save the extra money.
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My buddy just made another great video on this topic that you can watch here, lets see if we can get him to 100k subs! He's only <200 away! https://www.youtube.com/c/AutomotiveLifeTV
Or… don’t get a new/used car at dealerships. Go through a private sale and get a cheap reliable daily car like a Toyota Camry and then do most of your own maintenance… gotta save somewhere
Sounds like your describing the plot of the big short in the beginning of the video
Sounds like you are such an experienced person, lol
Just like the "interest only" mortgage, buying a car on an EIGHT YEAR loan is SUICIDE. Of course, NOT for the banks. THEY have YOU where they want you. They will get your car AND your money. THIS is FASCISM at work.
Its the Grand "Hand gesture" Stephen
you mustve bought the wrong cars. the japanese "hero" cars are climbing like the freaking x15 after its released. half a million for a 22b jesus hussein christe :///
Good. I have been wanting an Escalade. The marks ups are a joke. I will continue to patiently wait.
You should watch princes of the yen documentary, exactly same thing happened in Japan leading to their current economic situation.
It's a bit cray cray. Ordered a Tesla Model Y in Jan, took delivery in May, same configuration is now $10,000 more than when I ordered it. Ridiculous.
I want to buy a car so bad but the car industry is so toxic. Dealerships are selling 10 year old cars for $15,000. Going through a private owner is no better because it might have mechanical issues they “forget” to mention, no title, or the price is just off.
There is 'no way" I am paying for these used car prices.. Got me a Honda CTX (motorbike) and using this daily for work.
Graham, I feel like you just regurgitated a bunch of nothing. You never mention how well people that are in leases did or that a short term lease is the fastest way to get rid of negative equity, or when supply does come back so will giant rebates that will offset the negative equity and by the way the sub prime loan is never a good deal for any investor. It has been my life time experience that people that pay their bills always pay their bills and people that don't never will. As far as interest rates go I don't know of any bank that allows a dealer to mark up a rate more than one to two points. The real problem is the person who has bad credit. THEY PAY AN EXORBANITE RATE that is set by the bank not the dealer.
All the information in this video came into question as soon as you had Dave Ramsey take out an auto loan!
Prices of new cars have gone up dramatically. Used cars won’t drop much
The first car I got was a 10 year old Toyota Corrola with 120k miles, I got it for 3k in 2008. At the time I was getting my full time job, it didn't pay very much and I could not afford to pay much more than this. I could not have financed a new car because I didn't have much credit history and with such a low salary I couldn't afford a car payment I had to borrow some cash from my parents and they let me pay it back when I could interest free. Today I wouldn't have been able to afford any car and wouldn't have been able to get to work without a car, I'm not sure what I would have done this is crazy.
Keep your car as long as you can is the trick.. Still driving a 2003 Totoa and it still runs great
I sold my suv in January for 5k over what I owed. I’m patting myself on the back for that one.
I have always had a cool car or two, but I always have a beater daily driver, something high miles, 15-20 years old. Being a mechanic certain cars that wouldn't make sense to fix for a normal person, make me decent reliable transportation. I may not have alot, but I don't owe anything to anyone. My old 76 Chevy Silverado also increased in value at least 10x over what I started with.
What they’re listed for isn’t what people are paying at the end of the day. Most vehicles in fb marketplace are negotiable. Used car lots are just legal criminals so most sensible people don’t even consider that as an option.
I live a mile from work. I want to buy a newer truck but I can wait until things burst
The car makers still use old chips in the cars and the chip makers have moved on to make better and better technology realizing more profits. they’ve decided it’s better for their bottom line to stop making old chips and just make chips that have high demand.. capitalism at its finest. Maybe the car makers will upgrade their chips now.
Auto loans can often be refinanced.
9:16 intentionally misleading with a quote that doesn’t prove your point, but sounds generic enough that it fits it. No link to the article either. Always take what this guy says with a huge grain of salt because he always puts out unreliable info.
Lol imagine not owning a 1998 iron deathbox not missin them car payments
The problem is. People have been flipping cars like houses. Those are the real bubbles.
Been saying this for a while, the more niche the more money too, skyline r34’s went up 100% between 2020 and 2022
He should talk faster and waive his hands more.
Sooooo… How do us interested car buyers buy these defaulted loan cars? 👀 I’d love to pay less for a car because it was repoed, free discount!
Time to short 🤑
Whats the best way to refinance my car loan? I got a car in august at 21 and didnt have a credit score. Got hit with a 23 percent apr. 465 a month. Its killing me. Ive tried refinancing it twice and keep getting "credit is to new"
Hybrids ain't going down for at least the next two years. The normal cars are probably screwed.
Stupid bubbles created by stupid financial forecasters that created an even bigger problem in the used car market. I work in the semiconductor industry and can tell you, that wasn’t the issue it wasn’t just chips. Talk about wiring harness is coming from all over the world things like that. It was a culmination of a few bad missteps and then people going to town raping others on the cost of their vehicles when there really wasn’t an issue to begin with. Look at every used car lot in this country there are millions and millions and millions and millions of cars that are just sitting stagnant in Norman that have their chips
My 2013 Passat I only owe 5k on it. I’m willing to bet I could sell it for more than that. Just not sure what my next move would be
"Buy a car you can actually afford".. amazing that that has to be explained to people.
Also to mention, at least where I live, ALL of the auto repair shops are booked out. People are repairing their current vehicles instead of buying.
"Keep driving it till eventually it breaks even"
Lmaooo good one
I love chips.
I postponed my midlife crisis GT3RS. $50K over MSRP is pathetic.
This would explain why I see so many non-citizens running around with customized $80,000 Silverados while I still rock my 21 year old SUV.
So what you’re saying is I can go pickup a new hellcat without a credit check? 😈
The car market didnt just pop, I wish it did!
I went back to google looking for Grand theft avocados 🥑 news 😂😂😂
The amount of hand gestures in this video is out of control.
So I just put a $1000 non refundable deposit down on a new Mach-E I managed to find. Then this video pop's up in my feed…..What the fk is my play here….. Do I say fk it and tell the dealership to keep the $1000 and cancel to wait it out or continue with the purchase. I'm worried I wont be able to find another EV anytime soon though.. UGH THE TIMING.
Sooooo what should we be shorting? Dealership groups?
Just liked and subbed… this weekend i sold my new vehicle for what i owed on it and bought a car cash… got rid of 25k debt and 600 a month
There are too many people on the planet. There is always someone with money to spend that will spend it. In the past when we had a recession, very few people had extra cash to invest. In today's world, there are many people with extra cash to spend even though others are struggling.