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Natural immunity in Portugal

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Natural immunity in Portugal

Rise of natural acquired immunity

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Risk of BA.5 Infection among Persons Exposed to Previous SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Omicron subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2, displaced by BA.5 in many countries

Greater transmissibility

Partial evasion of BA.1- and BA.2-induced immunity

Portugal, one of the first countries affected by a BA.5 predominance

N = 9,307,996

All Portuguese residents aged 12 years and older, (National Census 2021)

Uninfected people in June 1st 2022 was 5, 328, 287, (57% of the Portuguese population over 12)

(PCR tests and rapid antigen tests to diagnose cases)

Presence of undocumented infections among the “uninfected” group of individuals

29.2% of infections were not notified

(based on the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 anti-N IgG in the population)

National coronavirus disease 2019 registry (SINAVE)

(all reported cases in the country, regardless of clinical presentation)

To calculate the risk of BA.5 infection after documented infection with past variants,

including BA.1 and BA.2

Times when different variants represented more than 90% of the isolates

To calculate their infection risk during the period of BA.5 dominance

Pooled BA.1 and BA.2 (slow transition between the two subvariants)

Comparator group

Population that did not have any documented infection before BA.5 dominance (June 1, 2022)

Results

Wuhan-Hu-1 55.7%

Alpha 58.8%

Delta 64.5%

BA.1 / BA.2 7 6.8%

We found that previous SARS-CoV-2 infection had a protective effect against BA.5 infection

Protection was maximal for previous infection with BA.1 or BA.2 (not suprising)

Context

Portugal more than 98% of the study population completed the primary vaccination series before 2022

There is a perception that the protection afforded by previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection is very low, given the high number of BA.5 infections among persons with previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection.

Our data indicate that this perception is probably a consequence of the larger pool of persons with BA.1 or BA.2 infection than with infection by other subvariants, and it is not supported by the data.

Breakthrough infections with the BA.5 subvariant were less likely among persons with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection history … especially for previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection, than among uninfected persons.

source

29 COMMENTS

  1. I 100% agree the Wuhan strain is still offering me some protection. I had severe Covid November 2019 from people ho went to China. Caught Covid September 2021 and Omicron January 2022 very mild infections. Had tons of contact with Omicron BA 5 no reinfection with that strain. November 2019 still remains as my only severe Covid case.

  2. Canadian here, house had covid twice, I never got it both times, I had no repsonse to the 2 jabs originally. Appears I have natural immunity, I did none of the recommended options. So, yeah not everyone is going to need to do anything at all. To me this is just a story, I cannot relate to the vaccine side effects at all or the virus itself. I also work in the food industry so I am over exposed to thousands of random guests.

  3. If our stupid greed merchants and politicians keep on putting the charging massive amounts for fuel to get money for war, ahead of agriculture, and cause starvation by doing so, the epidemics we have seen will be nothing compared with what is to come, and soon.

  4. I’m a Thai teacher and unvaccinated ( 85% of teachers must be vaccinated but exception for me ). Live my life quite healthy . And got covid last month , mild symptoms like muscle pain and flu 1 day . Doctor gave me molnupiravir and I took only this med , but I got some rashes for a few days after I recover. I like to listen useful information from you, thanks a lot.

  5. Coupled with massive increase in overall mortality does this mean we'll get back to square one that natural Immunity would have killed this pandemic most effectively. Portugal death rate from B5 (95% V) compared to South Africa (mere 31% V) was 8.73X Higher.

  6. I believe all the mandates were put into place simply to thwart herd immunity as we could have saved so many lives by simply exposing all healthy people 60 & under. That's how we could have protected our most vulnerable. Instead we followed orders and our elders and many others were killed.
    I don't even think most people know what herd immunity is. It's a natural phenomenon that occurs when approximately 60-70% of the population is exposed to a virus. It does not occur by vaccination, that is a superseded theory, it only occurs via natural infection.

  7. As schools go back this week, what is the likelihood of cases going back up? Could it double to 200,000 cases and do we know if (due to immunity) it would take double the time to get that point?

    Just curious as cases shot down the week after schools finished for the summer.

  8. Most is caused by the similarity as the beta and delta strains took a complete other development from the original. The omicron started redevelopment (molecularly) from the original strain. And not to forget there was an initial immunity of about 30% right from the beginning due to former infections with other coronaviruses.

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